New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints30
- RJ BarrettAssists4
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–108
- Q44.2Jalen Brunson enters the game for Miles McBride113–108
- Q44.2Ja'Kobe Walter steps out of bounds turnover113–108
- Q46.1Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Davion Mitchell113–108
- Q46.1Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Jakob Poeltl113–108
- Q46.1Raptors Full timeout113–108
- Q46.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes 29-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)113–108
- Q425.1Mikal Bridges defensive rebound110–108
- Q428.1OG Anunoby blocks RJ Barrett 's 2-foot driving layup110–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:30Davion Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)NY 101 – 104 TOR · TOR 44% → 66% +23TOR 44% → 66%+23 pts
- Q43:03Jalen Brunson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 104 – 104 TOR · NY 32% → 56% +24NY 32% → 56%+24 pts
- Q41:38Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 108 – 106 TOR · NY 43% → 75% +32NY 43% → 75%+32 pts
- Q442.0RJ Barrett makes two point shotNY 108 – 108 TOR · TOR 17% → 47% +30TOR 17% → 47%+30 pts
- Q436.0Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot layup (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 110 – 108 TOR · NY 53% → 84% +31NY 53% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML NY -310 / TOR +250
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NY: Elo 68.2%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -265
- TOR +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 120.0 – 112.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +17 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +133 Elo | NY 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 112.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 117.425th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.8 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 109.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 113.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.88th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 16–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.