Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists15
- Cade CunninghamRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–111
- Q418.0Tobias Harris defensive rebound120–111
- Q420.1Jalen Brunson misses running pullup jump shot120–111
- Q425.0Jalen Brunson defensive rebound120–111
- Q427.0Jaden Ivey misses free throw 2 of 2120–111
- Q427.0Jaden Ivey makes free throw 1 of 2120–111
- Q427.0Miles McBride personal foul119–111
- Q433.0OG Anunoby personal foul119–111
- Q439.1Pistons defensive team rebound119–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211.1Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointerDET 69 – 57 NY · DET 59% → 67% +8DET 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q411:16Ariel Hukporti makes alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 89 – 87 NY · NY 45% → 54% +9NY 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q410:52Cade Cunningham makes 13-foot step back jumpshotDET 91 – 87 NY · DET 47% → 56% +9DET 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q410:24Jalen Duren makes dunkDET 93 – 87 NY · DET 56% → 65% +9DET 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q49:04Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 98 – 89 NY · DET 67% → 79% +12DET 67% → 79%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML DET +260 / NY -330
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NY: Elo 73.8%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -276
- DET +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.5 – 117.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −24 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −53, Cameron Payne −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +180 Elo | NY 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.1 | Points scored | 118.36th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 110.710th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +7.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−24 Elo- Karl-Anthony Towns right knee tendinitis−53 Elo
- Cameron Payne left elbow−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.