Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists14
- Cade CunninghamRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints28
- Derrick WhiteAssists11
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–130
- Q42.0Payton Pritchard out of bounds lost ball turnover120–130
- Q425.1Jaylen Brown defensive rebound120–130
- Q427.0Tobias Harris misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot120–130
- Q434.1Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2120–130
- Q434.1Jaden Ivey enters the game for Isaiah Stewart120–129
- Q434.1Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2120–129
- Q434.1Isaiah Stewart loose ball foul120–128
- Q434.1Celtics defensive team rebound120–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)DET 2 – 6 BOS · BOS 87% → 90% +3BOS 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q48:28Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 101 – 109 BOS · DET 3% → 7% +4DET 3% → 7%+4 pts
- Q47:38Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 104 – 112 BOS · DET 3% → 7% +4DET 3% → 7%+4 pts
- Q46:48Cade Cunningham makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Duren assists)DET 106 – 112 BOS · DET 6% → 11% +4DET 6% → 11%+4 pts
- Q46:21Kristaps Porzingis makes 3-foot layup (Derrick White assists)DET 106 – 115 BOS · BOS 92% → 95% +3BOS 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML DET +600 / BOS -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 85.9%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -636
- DET +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 104.5 – 117.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +13 | −25 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +314 Elo | BOS 85.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.7 | Points scored | 120.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +10.33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 118.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 108.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 8–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.