Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints28
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–107
- Q411.0shot clock turnover128–107
- Q435.0Paul Reed back court turnover128–107
- Q444.0AJ Johnson makes two point shot (Chris Livingston assists)128–107
- Q447.1Ronald Holland II lost ball turnover (Chris Livingston steals)126–107
- Q456.0AJ Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Smith assists)126–107
- Q41:04Tyler Smith defensive rebound123–107
- Q41:05Wendell Moore Jr. misses driving layup123–107
- Q41:10Chris Livingston lost ball turnover (Wendell Moore Jr. steals)123–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:55Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)MIL 12 – 15 DET · DET 43% → 50% +7DET 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q15:47Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)MIL 17 – 18 DET · MIL 48% → 55% +7MIL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q13:09Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ausar Thompson assists)MIL 24 – 23 DET · DET 34% → 41% +7DET 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q210:05Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 42 – 35 DET · MIL 66% → 72% +7MIL 66% → 72%+7 pts
- Q23:57Taurean Prince makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 64 – 55 DET · MIL 71% → 78% +7MIL 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -2.5
- ML MIL -150 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.0 – 109.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +12 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +71 Elo | MIL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 109.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 111.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.918th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 108.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 110.711th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 4–624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–0 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.