Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds13
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists14
- Scottie BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–118
- Q411.1Luka Doncic defensive rebound125–118
- Q412.1P.J. Washington blocks Scottie Barnes's driving layup125–118
- Q420.0RJ Barrett defensive rebound125–118
- Q421.1Dereck Lively II misses free throw 2 of 2125–118
- Q421.1Dereck Lively II makes free throw 1 of 2125–118
- Q421.1Jakob Poeltl personal foul124–118
- Q431.1Scottie Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)124–118
- Q436.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2124–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:33Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 9 – 11 TOR · DAL 62% → 68% +6DAL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q17:26Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dereck Lively II assists)DAL 12 – 11 TOR · DAL 68% → 74% +6DAL 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q12:47Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 25 – 21 TOR · DAL 73% → 78% +5DAL 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q44:38Ja'Kobe Walter makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Jakob Poeltl assists)DAL 114 – 108 TOR · TOR 6% → 12% +5TOR 6% → 12%+5 pts
- Q41:35Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)DAL 120 – 115 TOR · TOR <1% → 6% +5TOR <1% → 6%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML DAL -320 / TOR +250
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -8.5
- DAL 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 80.2%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -267
- TOR +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 122.0 – 114.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | +14 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +243 Elo | DAL 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 112.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 117.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −4.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 108.723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 6–520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–8 | 15–8 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | — |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.