Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints36
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints27
- Jerami GrantAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–131
- Q410.1P.J. Washington defensive rebound137–131
- Q412.1Deni Avdija misses 25-foot three point jumper137–131
- Q416.0Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2137–131
- Q416.0Mavericks offensive team rebound136–131
- Q416.0Quentin Grimes misses free throw 1 of 2136–131
- Q416.0Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul136–131
- Q417.2Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2136–131
- Q417.2Spencer Dinwiddie enters the game for Luka Doncic136–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:52Deni Avdija makes driving layupDAL 125 – 124 POR · POR 23% → 38% +15POR 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q42:05Quentin Grimes makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 127 – 124 POR · DAL 63% → 80% +17DAL 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q41:54Deni Avdija makes driving layupDAL 127 – 126 POR · POR 20% → 37% +17POR 20% → 37%+17 pts
- Q454.1P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 130 – 127 POR · DAL 52% → 88% +36DAL 52% → 88%+36 pts
- Q449.1Deni Avdija makes two point shotDAL 130 – 129 POR · POR 11% → 33% +22POR 11% → 33%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML DAL -200 / POR +170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 58.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -180
- POR +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.5 – 110.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −62 | −2 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +62 Elo | DAL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 106.028th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 113.619th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.5 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 103.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 111.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−2 Elo- Donovan Clingan left knee sprain−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–8 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | — |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.