Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints25
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Wizards- Marvin Bagley IIIPoints16
- Jordan PooleAssists8
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–101
- Q40.2Spencer Dinwiddie defensive rebound137–101
- Q41.2Markieff Morris blocks Jared Butler 's 5-foot driving layup137–101
- Q49.0shot clock turnover137–101
- Q434.0Marvin Bagley III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)137–101
- Q446.2Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2137–98
- Q446.2Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2136–98
- Q446.2Justin Champagnie loose ball foul135–98
- Q447.0Mavericks defensive team rebound135–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:07Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 3 – 0 WSH · DAL 86% → 89% +3DAL 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q19:30P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 6 – 6 WSH · DAL 82% → 86% +4DAL 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q18:03Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 11 – 6 WSH · DAL 88% → 91% +3DAL 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q16.0Spencer Dinwiddie makes 31-foot three pointerDAL 31 – 22 WSH · DAL 91% → 93% +3DAL 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q211:20Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumperDAL 34 – 24 WSH · DAL 91% → 94% +3DAL 91% → 94%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -13.5
- ML DAL -1000 / WSH +600
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -12.5
- DAL 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 88.5%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -636
- WSH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 123.0 – 109.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1297 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −37 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +354 Elo | DAL 88.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 86.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 86.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 107.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 122.829th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −15.830th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 102.630th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 117.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 1–730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–8 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | — |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–13 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.