Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints31
- Marcus SmartAssists6
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints37
- P.J. WashingtonAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q40.0Santi Aldama defensive rebound116–121
- Q41.0Luka Doncic misses free throw 2 of 2116–121
- Q41.0Mavericks offensive team rebound116–121
- Q41.0Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2116–121
- Q41.0Brandon Clarke enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.116–121
- Q41.0Jaren Jackson Jr. personal take foul116–121
- Q44.0Ja Morant makes 22-foot three pointer (Santi Aldama assists)116–121
- Q45.1Santi Aldama offensive rebound113–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:34Ja Morant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 111 – 103 DAL · MEM 81% → 92% +12MEM 81% → 92%+12 pts
- Q43:12Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)MEM 111 – 106 DAL · DAL 6% → 18% +11DAL 6% → 18%+11 pts
- Q41:40Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)MEM 111 – 113 DAL · DAL 41% → 73% +32DAL 41% → 73%+32 pts
- Q41:10Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)MEM 111 – 116 DAL · DAL 76% → 96% +19DAL 76% → 96%+19 pts
- Q41:00Desmond Bane makes two point shotMEM 113 – 116 DAL · MEM 3% → 13% +10MEM 3% → 13%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML MEM +160 / DAL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -170
- MEM +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 120.0 – 124.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +92 | +20 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +69 Elo | DAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 111.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.8 | Margin | +6.57th of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 116.14th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 109.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 7–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 13–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–7 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.