Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Damian LillardAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints34
- Dennis SchroderAssists11
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–113
- Q41.1Nic Claxton defensive rebound118–113
- Q41.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2118–113
- Q41.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2118–113
- Q41.1Jalen Wilson personal take foul117–113
- Q43.1Cameron Johnson makes driving layup (Dennis Schroder assists)117–113
- Q46.1Jalen Wilson enters the game for Keon Johnson117–111
- Q46.1Nets Full timeout117–111
- Q46.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:14Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 101 – 103 BKN · MIL 23% → 41% +19MIL 23% → 41%+19 pts
- Q43:47Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 101 – 106 BKN · BKN 60% → 79% +19BKN 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q43:38Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three pointer (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)MIL 104 – 106 BKN · MIL 21% → 40% +19MIL 21% → 40%+19 pts
- Q42:08Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 109 – 108 BKN · MIL 34% → 63% +29MIL 34% → 63%+29 pts
- Q41:09Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 111 – 108 BKN · MIL 66% → 86% +20MIL 66% → 86%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -235 / BKN +195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.6%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -207
- BKN +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.0 – 104.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −29 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 110.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.718th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 114.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–13 | 15–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.