Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints31
- Khris MiddletonAssists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds18
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints34
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–111
- Q40.1Bucks offensive team rebound105–111
- Q40.1Damian Lillard misses 70-foot three point jumper105–111
- Q41.1Al Horford makes layup (Derrick White assists)105–111
- Q48.1Giannis Antetokounmpo bad pass (Derrick White steals)105–109
- Q414.2Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2105–109
- Q414.2Damian Lillard enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.105–108
- Q414.2Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2105–108
- Q414.2Andre Jackson Jr. personal take foul105–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:40Gary Trent Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 95 – 92 BOS · MIL 40% → 55% +15MIL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q47:20Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)MIL 95 – 95 BOS · BOS 44% → 60% +16BOS 44% → 60%+16 pts
- Q42:49Damian Lillard makes 1-foot driving dunkMIL 101 – 100 BOS · MIL 36% → 52% +17MIL 36% → 52%+17 pts
- Q42:26Jayson Tatum makes 3-foot dunk (Al Horford assists)MIL 101 – 102 BOS · BOS 47% → 65% +18BOS 47% → 65%+18 pts
- Q41:29Al Horford makes 26-foot three point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)MIL 101 – 105 BOS · BOS 66% → 90% +24BOS 66% → 90%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML MIL +270 / BOS -340
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -286
- MIL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.0 – 118.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1677 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | 0 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +172 Elo | BOS 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 120.53rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 110.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +10.33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 119.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 108.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–6 | Road vs home | 9–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–13 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–4 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.