Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints23
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds17
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–104
- Q416.0shot clock turnover119–104
- Q440.0Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2119–104
- Q440.0Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Trae Young119–103
- Q440.0Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Jalen Johnson119–103
- Q440.0Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2119–103
- Q440.0Trae Young personal take foul119–102
- Q446.2Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot dunk (Trae Young assists)119–102
- Q452.0Andre Jackson Jr. lost ball turnover (Bogdan Bogdanovic steals)117–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:36Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 48 – 44 MIL · ATL 43% → 51% +8ATL 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q25:05Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 30-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 60 – 51 MIL · ATL 57% → 65% +8ATL 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q22:46Delon Wright makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)ATL 64 – 56 MIL · MIL 29% → 37% +8MIL 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q33:33AJ Green makes 27-foot three pointer (Bobby Portis assists)ATL 89 – 81 MIL · MIL 20% → 29% +9MIL 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q410:39Damian Lillard makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotATL 99 – 92 MIL · MIL 17% → 26% +10MIL 17% → 26%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -4.5
- ML ATL +150 / MIL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- ATL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.0 – 120.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | +20 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +49 Elo | MIL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.013th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 112.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 113.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.8 | Pace | 99.917th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–13 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–7 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.