Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dorian Finney-SmithPoints19
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Cameron JohnsonRebounds7
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints28
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Brandon ClarkeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–135
- Q411.1Keon Johnson makes dunk (Shake Milton assists)119–135
- Q414.1Jaylen Wells lost ball turnover (Shake Milton steals)117–135
- Q430.0Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)117–135
- Q445.1Jaylen Wells makes 2-foot layup (Yuki Kawamura assists)114–135
- Q41:02Jaylen Wells defensive rebound114–133
- Q41:05Noah Clowney misses 23-foot three point jumper114–133
- Q41:11Keon Johnson makes technical free throw114–133
- Q41:11John Konchar enters the game for Desmond Bane113–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:11Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 69 – 74 MEM · BKN 12% → 17% +5BKN 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q38:52Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)BKN 72 – 74 MEM · BKN 17% → 24% +7BKN 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q31:19Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 93 – 99 MEM · BKN 9% → 15% +6BKN 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q31:10Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)BKN 93 – 102 MEM · MEM 85% → 91% +6MEM 85% → 91%+6 pts
- Q344.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)BKN 95 – 105 MEM · MEM 87% → 93% +5MEM 87% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -9.5
- ML BKN +380 / MEM -550
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -7.5
- MEM 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 77.6%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -406
- BKN +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.5 – 118.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | +89 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +216 Elo | MEM 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 79.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.1 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 113.417th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +8.74th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 114.55th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 106.35th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 106.71st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 18th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 11–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–8 | 17–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 12–6 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–1 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.