Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists12
- John KoncharRebounds8
Wizards- Jonas ValanciunasPoints20
- Jared ButlerAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–112
- Q45.1Jared Butler out of bounds bad pass turnover140–112
- Q419.1shot clock turnover140–112
- Q443.1Marvin Bagley III makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jared Butler assists)140–112
- Q454.1Yuki Kawamura makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot140–110
- Q41:03Jaylen Wells offensive rebound137–110
- Q41:06Cam Spencer misses 26-foot three point jumper137–110
- Q41:20Johnny Davis makes 1-foot dunk (Jared Butler assists)137–110
- Q41:21Anthony Gill offensive rebound137–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:59Carlton Carrington makes 22-foot pullup jump shotMEM 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 22% → 25% +3WSH 22% → 25%+3 pts
- Q110:12Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 5 – 4 WSH · MEM 75% → 79% +5MEM 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q15:52Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 20 – 10 WSH · MEM 87% → 90% +3MEM 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q14:49Jay Huff makes 23-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 23 – 14 WSH · MEM 86% → 89% +4MEM 86% → 89%+4 pts
- Q13:09Cam Spencer makes 28-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 30 – 20 WSH · MEM 87% → 90% +3MEM 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -10.5
- ML MEM -450 / WSH +340
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -8.5
- MEM 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MEM: Elo 79.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -360
- WSH +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 123.0 – 112.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1311 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | −22 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +236 Elo | MEM 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.4 | Points scored | 107.426th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 123.030th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.9 | Margin | −15.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 103.030th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 117.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 2–829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−22 Elo- Richaun Holmes non-covid illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–8 | 7–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | — |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 7–14 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.