Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jrue HolidayPoints23
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–121
- Q43.1
Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound127–121 - Q43.1Derrick White misses 25-foot three point jumper127–121
- Q44.1Jayson Tatum offensive rebound127–121
- Q48.1Payton Pritchard misses 29-foot three point jumper127–121
- Q414.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2127–121
- Q414.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2126–121
- Q414.1Kristaps Porzingis turnover125–121
- Q414.1Kristaps Porzingis personal take foul125–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:19Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 109 – 103 BOS · MEM 58% → 72% +15MEM 58% → 72%+15 pts
- Q44:55Kristaps Porzingis makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)MEM 115 – 112 BOS · BOS 21% → 38% +17BOS 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q44:34Jayson Tatum makes driving layupMEM 115 – 114 BOS · BOS 37% → 50% +13BOS 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q44:22Desmond Bane makes 6-foot two point shotMEM 117 – 114 BOS · MEM 50% → 64% +13MEM 50% → 64%+13 pts
- Q42:35Desmond Bane makes 28-foot three pointerMEM 122 – 115 BOS · MEM 78% → 93% +15MEM 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML MEM +225 / BOS -275
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.5%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -238
- MEM +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 115.0 – 122.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1681 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +92 | +38 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +135 Elo | BOS 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 110.08th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.0 | Margin | +10.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 118.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 108.98th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.3 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 10–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–8 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.