Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints26
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints18
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q40.1Kings offensive team rebound110–115
- Q40.1Malik Monk misses 35-foot three point pullup jump shot110–115
- Q42.2Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2110–115
- Q42.2Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2110–114
- Q42.2DeMar DeRozan personal take foul110–113
- Q43.1Grizzlies defensive team rebound110–113
- Q46.0Malik Monk misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–113
- Q414.0Kevin Huerter enters the game for Keegan Murray110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:11Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)SAC 94 – 92 MEM · MEM 31% → 44% +13MEM 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q44:26Jake LaRavia makes 2-foot layup (Desmond Bane assists)SAC 101 – 102 MEM · MEM 46% → 59% +14MEM 46% → 59%+14 pts
- Q43:50Malik Monk makes driving layup (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 103 – 104 MEM · SAC 27% → 40% +13SAC 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q42:13Malik Monk makes 22-foot three point shot (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 108 – 110 MEM · SAC 10% → 30% +19SAC 10% → 30%+19 pts
- Q41:33Desmond Bane makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)SAC 108 – 112 MEM · MEM 73% → 88% +15MEM 73% → 88%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML SAC +130 / MEM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5.5
- MEM 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 70.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -138
- SAC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 120.0 – 122.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +97 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +149 Elo | MEM 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 121.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 113.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +8.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.35th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 106.74th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.1 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 10–36th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–13 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 10–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–0 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.