Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints28
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Tari EasonRebounds12
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints27
- Malik MonkAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–120
- Q42.0Alex Len offensive rebound111–120
- Q44.1Jordan McLaughlin misses free throw 2 of 2111–120
- Q44.1Kings offensive team rebound111–120
- Q44.1Jordan McLaughlin misses free throw 1 of 2111–120
- Q44.1Jae'Sean Tate personal foul111–120
- Q44.1Steven Adams bad pass (Jordan McLaughlin steals)111–120
- Q44.1Steven Adams offensive rebound111–120
- Q49.0Reed Sheppard misses 26-foot three point shot111–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:25Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 61 – 61 SAC · HOU 39% → 48% +9HOU 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:06Malik Monk makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 61 – 64 SAC · SAC 52% → 61% +9SAC 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q47:44Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)HOU 94 – 103 SAC · SAC 79% → 89% +9SAC 79% → 89%+9 pts
- Q46:06Alperen Sengun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 99 – 105 SAC · HOU 9% → 18% +9HOU 9% → 18%+9 pts
- Q45:41Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)HOU 99 – 108 SAC · SAC 83% → 92% +9SAC 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML HOU +105 / SAC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- SAC 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 36.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.0 – 115.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +13 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +100 Elo | HOU 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 114.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.3 | Points allowed | 114.019th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 112.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.4 | Defense rating | 112.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–6 | 8–13 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–0 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.