Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints56
- Russell WestbrookAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints39
- Jordan PooleAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–122
- Q47.0Jordan Poole defensive rebound113–122
- Q48.1Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot113–122
- Q412.1Jordan Poole makes free throw 2 of 2113–122
- Q412.1Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 2113–121
- Q412.1Russell Westbrook personal foul113–120
- Q415.1Anthony Gill defensive rebound113–120
- Q417.1Bilal Coulibaly blocks Julian Strawther 's 6-foot driving layup113–120
- Q420.1Nikola Jokic enters the game for Peyton Watson113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:08Justin Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)DEN 83 – 91 WSH · WSH 46% → 57% +11WSH 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q32:48Julian Strawther makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 86 – 91 WSH · DEN 42% → 54% +11DEN 42% → 54%+11 pts
- Q31:49Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 88 – 94 WSH · WSH 40% → 52% +12WSH 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q348.1Jordan Poole makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 88 – 97 WSH · WSH 53% → 65% +12WSH 53% → 65%+12 pts
- Q411:42Jared Butler makes 28-foot three point jumper (Johnny Davis assists)DEN 93 – 102 WSH · WSH 55% → 67% +12WSH 55% → 67%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML DEN -750 / WSH +510
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 79.0%, market 84.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -538
- WSH +538 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.5 – 112.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1292 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | −33 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +231 Elo | DEN 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 84.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 106.728th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 123.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −16.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 102.330th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 118.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.4 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 1–830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−33 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon left hamstring−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 6–14 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.