Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints21
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Georges NiangRebounds9
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints22
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–101
- Q44.1Keon Johnson makes 25-foot shot130–101
- Q415.0Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound130–98
- Q417.1Tristan Thompson misses 17-foot two point shot130–98
- Q441.1Tyrese Martin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)130–98
- Q451.1Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound130–95
- Q451.1Sam Merrill misses 27-foot three point jumper130–95
- Q41:10Ben Simmons out of bounds bad pass turnover130–95
- Q41:18Nets offensive team rebound130–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)CLE 0 – 5 BKN · BKN 23% → 28% +5BKN 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q18:57Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)CLE 5 – 10 BKN · BKN 24% → 29% +5BKN 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q17:58Donovan Mitchell makes 15-foot two point shotCLE 7 – 12 BKN · CLE 67% → 71% +4CLE 67% → 71%+4 pts
- Q17:25Isaac Okoro makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 10 – 12 BKN · CLE 70% → 76% +5CLE 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q15:34Georges Niang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 17 – 15 BKN · CLE 77% → 82% +5CLE 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML CLE -550 / BKN +380
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.1%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -406
- BKN +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 113.0 – 102.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −35 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +165 Elo | CLE 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.2 | Points scored | 110.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 114.720th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.9 | Margin | −4.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 115.827th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–3 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–8 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–8 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–1 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.