Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints27
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds8
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–115
- Q414.2Bilal Coulibaly makes driving dunk105–115
- Q419.1Isaac Okoro makes free throw 2 of 2103–115
- Q419.1Carlton Carrington enters the game for Johnny Davis103–114
- Q419.1Isaac Okoro makes free throw 1 of 2103–114
- Q419.1Johnny Davis personal take foul103–113
- Q427.1Johnny Davis enters the game for Carlton Carrington103–113
- Q427.1Jordan Poole personal take foul103–113
- Q440.15 second violation103–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:45Isaac Okoro makes three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 60 – 60 CLE · CLE 74% → 81% +7CLE 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q33:27Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)WSH 75 – 77 CLE · WSH 11% → 17% +6WSH 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q32:38Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 77 – 82 CLE · CLE 83% → 89% +6CLE 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q32:25Bilal Coulibaly makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 80 – 82 CLE · WSH 11% → 17% +6WSH 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q320.0Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)WSH 80 – 86 CLE · CLE 84% → 90% +6CLE 84% → 90%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -17.5
- ML WSH +1000 / CLE -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -13
- CLE 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 88.8%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -1048
- WSH +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.5 – 125.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1304 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +5 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +360 Elo | CLE 88.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 89.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 89.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 121.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.8 | Points allowed | 111.511th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.2 | Margin | +9.93rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.8 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 109.810th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.6 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 13–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–15 | 18–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 7–15 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–6 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.