Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints27
- Jamal SheadAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q42.1Raptors offensive team rebound114–110
- Q42.1Ochai Agbaji misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot114–110
- Q48.0Scottie Barnes defensive rebound114–110
- Q410.0Dillon Brooks misses free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q410.0Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2114–110
- Q410.0Scottie Barnes personal take foul113–110
- Q413.0Jamal Shead personal foul113–110
- Q413.2Jalen Green enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate113–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:11Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)HOU 56 – 60 TOR · TOR 34% → 43% +9TOR 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q37:39Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)HOU 63 – 66 TOR · TOR 32% → 42% +9TOR 32% → 42%+9 pts
- Q31:55Chris Boucher makes 25-foot three point shot (Jamal Shead assists)HOU 77 – 78 TOR · TOR 28% → 39% +11TOR 28% → 39%+11 pts
- Q49:04Ja'Kobe Walter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)HOU 92 – 89 TOR · TOR 15% → 25% +10TOR 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q48:03Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot two point shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 94 – 91 TOR · HOU 66% → 75% +9HOU 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML HOU -390 / TOR +300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 74.4%, market 76.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -318
- TOR +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 107.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | −40 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +185 Elo | HOU 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 111.719th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.4 | Points allowed | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.5 | Margin | −5.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 108.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 6–921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−40 Elo- RJ Barrett illness−21 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–10 | 19–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.