Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints16
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints33
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists3
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–99
- Q40.1Gary Payton II defensive rebound93–99
- Q43.0Jabari Smith Jr. misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot93–99
- Q48.1Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 293–99
- Q48.1Warriors offensive team rebound93–98
- Q48.1Andrew Wiggins misses free throw 1 of 293–98
- Q48.1Jabari Smith Jr. personal take foul93–98
- Q48.1Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound93–98
- Q411.1Fred VanVleet misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot93–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:19Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three pointerHOU 61 – 65 GS · HOU 32% → 42% +10HOU 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q48:44Amen Thompson makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Steven Adams assists)HOU 76 – 77 GS · HOU 41% → 50% +10HOU 41% → 50%+10 pts
- Q48:01Jonathan Kuminga makes 4-foot two point shotHOU 76 – 79 GS · GS 50% → 60% +10GS 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q44:39Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point shot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 85 – 87 GS · HOU 23% → 40% +18HOU 23% → 40%+18 pts
- Q44:17Jonathan Kuminga makes tip shotHOU 85 – 89 GS · GS 60% → 73% +13GS 60% → 73%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -185 / GS +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.8%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -162
- GS +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 108.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −40 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +26 Elo | HOU 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 110.38th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.5 | Margin | +5.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 112.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.2 | Defense rating | 106.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 102.55th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–7 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–4 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.