New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints28
- Dejounte MurrayAssists8
- Yves MissiRebounds11
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–133
- Q49.1Trey Jemison III makes two point shot113–133
- Q49.1Trey Jemison III offensive rebound111–133
- Q412.1Brandon Boston misses 14-foot step back jumpshot111–133
- Q421.1Cam Whitmore makes two point shot111–133
- Q424.1Jock Landale defensive rebound111–131
- Q428.1Antonio Reeves misses 23-foot three point jumper111–131
- Q450.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2111–131
- Q450.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2111–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:04Trey Murphy III makes 29-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 7 – 2 HOU · NO 27% → 32% +6NO 27% → 32%+6 pts
- Q19:48Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)NO 7 – 5 HOU · HOU 67% → 73% +6HOU 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q18:53Jabari Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)NO 7 – 10 HOU · HOU 76% → 81% +5HOU 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q18:33Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Dillon Brooks assists)NO 7 – 13 HOU · HOU 81% → 85% +4HOU 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q17:47Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 10 – 15 HOU · NO 13% → 16% +4NO 13% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML NO +315 / HOU -410
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 82.5%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -334
- NO +334 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 104.5 – 114.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | +4 | NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +269 Elo | HOU 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 112.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 106.14th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.5 | Margin | +6.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 109.121st of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 103.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.610th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–13 | Road vs home | 10–35th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−71 Elo- Jose Alvarado left hamstring strain−5 Elo
Rockets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–17 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 11–7 |
| Underdog | 9–12 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.