Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints32
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds20
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints36
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Yves MissiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–109
- Q41.0Kevin Huerter enters the game for Keegan Murray111–109
- Q41.0Jamal Cain enters the game for CJ McCollum111–109
- Q41.0Kings Full timeout111–109
- Q41.0Yves Missi personal foul111–109
- Q41.0Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound111–109
- Q43.2Malik Monk blocks Dejounte Murray 's 14-foot pullup jump shot111–109
- Q413.1CJ McCollum defensive rebound111–109
- Q416.0DeMar DeRozan misses 22-foot pullup jump shot111–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:53Herbert Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)SAC 64 – 67 NO · NO 38% → 47% +9NO 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q38:39DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 67 – 67 NO · SAC 53% → 62% +9SAC 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q41:59CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)SAC 109 – 106 NO · NO 5% → 19% +14NO 5% → 19%+14 pts
- Q41:41Keegan Murray makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 111 – 106 NO · SAC 82% → 93% +11SAC 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q41:24CJ McCollum makes 13-foot two point shotSAC 111 – 108 NO · NO 5% → 16% +11NO 5% → 16%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML SAC -240 / NO +200
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4
- SAC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SAC: Elo 66.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -212
- NO +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 119.5 – 113.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −46 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +117 Elo | SAC 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 105.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −11.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 104.728th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 4–826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–14 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 0–5 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.