Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints23
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints30
- Chris PaulAssists13
- Chris PaulRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–113
- Q45.2Malaki Branham bad pass (Jordan McLaughlin steals)140–113
- Q423.2Colby Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Orlando Robinson assists)140–113
- Q437.2Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 2 of 2137–113
- Q437.2Spurs offensive team rebound137–112
- Q437.2Sandro Mamukelashvili misses free throw 1 of 2137–112
- Q437.2Doug McDermott shooting foul137–112
- Q450.0Doug McDermott makes 26-foot three pointer (Orlando Robinson assists)137–112
- Q41:01Charles Bassey makes free throw 2 of 2134–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:48Keldon Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SAC 16 – 21 SA · SA 37% → 43% +7SA 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q13:29Jeremy Sochan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SAC 16 – 28 SA · SA 53% → 59% +7SA 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q13:18Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 19 – 28 SA · SAC 40% → 47% +7SAC 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q12:05Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 24 – 32 SA · SAC 42% → 49% +7SAC 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q38:29Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point shot (Chris Paul assists)SAC 77 – 74 SA · SA 21% → 29% +8SA 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML SAC -255 / SA +210
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- SAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.4 pts
- SAC: Elo 56.6%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- SAC -223
- SA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 117.0 – 110.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | −37 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +46 Elo | SAC 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 110.920th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 111.713th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.917th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 110.519th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 111.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–14 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.