Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints26
- CJ McCollumAssists8
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–109
- Q41.0shot clock turnover119–109
- Q424.0Luguentz Dort defensive rebound119–109
- Q426.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses 23-foot three point jumper119–109
- Q434.0Luguentz Dort personal foul119–109
- Q434.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound119–109
- Q435.1Dejounte Murray misses 22-foot three point jumper119–109
- Q439.1Pelicans offensive team rebound119–109
- Q442.1CJ McCollum misses 22-foot three point jumper119–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:28Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layupOKC 2 – 0 NO · OKC 74% → 77% +3OKC 74% → 77%+3 pts
- Q110:28Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layupOKC 4 – 0 NO · OKC 77% → 80% +3OKC 77% → 80%+3 pts
- Q17:49Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 13 – 2 NO · OKC 85% → 89% +3OKC 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q16:38Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 18 – 5 NO · OKC 88% → 91% +3OKC 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q158.2Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 34 – 21 NO · OKC 88% → 91% +3OKC 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -340 / NO +265
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 80.7%, market 73.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -282
- NO +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.5 – 107.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1655 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −42 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +249 Elo | OKC 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 73.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 104.330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Points allowed | 116.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.0 | Margin | −12.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 104.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.7 | Defense rating | 116.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.919th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–3 | Road vs home | 4–724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–9 | 8–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–9 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 7–1 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 13NO 88 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Apr 29OKC 97 @ NO 89PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 27OKC 106 @ NO 85PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Hit
- Apr 24NO 92 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 21NO 92 @ OKC 94PlayoffsPicked OKC 65%Hit
- Mar 26OKC 119 @ NO 112Picked NO 54%Miss
- Jan 26OKC 107 @ NO 83Picked OKC 52%Hit
- Nov 1NO 110 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 61%Miss