Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints25
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Kings- Kevin HuerterPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–141
- Q419.0Walker Kessler makes driving layup97–141
- Q431.1Jordan McLaughlin makes 25-foot three pointer95–141
- Q440.2Walker Kessler makes two point shot95–138
- Q442.0Walker Kessler offensive rebound93–138
- Q443.1Johnny Juzang misses two point shot93–138
- Q451.2Doug McDermott bad pass (Johnny Juzang steals)93–138
- Q41:06Colby Jones defensive rebound93–138
- Q41:09Svi Mykhailiuk misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot93–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:12Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 16 – 17 SAC · UTAH 14% → 18% +4UTAH 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q11:52Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)UTAH 16 – 20 SAC · SAC 82% → 86% +4SAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q159.0Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 18 – 24 SAC · SAC 84% → 88% +4SAC 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q112.0Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three pointer (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 23 – 24 SAC · UTAH 14% → 19% +4UTAH 14% → 19%+4 pts
- Q211:43Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 23 – 29 SAC · SAC 84% → 88% +4SAC 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -10.5
- ML UTAH +450 / SAC -700
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5.5
- SAC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- SAC: Elo 70.8%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- SAC -481
- UTAH +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.0 – 122.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +29 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +154 Elo | SAC 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.7 | Points scored | 115.410th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 113.920th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 113.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–12 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 9–12 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–5 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.