Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Johnny JuzangPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds17
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints19
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Anfernee SimonsRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–99
- Q44.2shot clock turnover141–99
- Q428.2Kris Murray makes driving dunk (Jabari Walker assists)141–99
- Q441.1Isaiah Collier makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot141–97
- Q458.1Drew Eubanks defensive rebound139–97
- Q459.2Dalano Banton misses driving floating jump shot139–97
- Q41:06Brice Sensabaugh makes 8-foot two point shot139–97
- Q41:22Dalano Banton makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jabari Walker assists)137–97
- Q41:23Brice Sensabaugh vs. Kris Murray (Jabari Walker gains possession)137–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:30Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 8 – 3 POR · UTAH 44% → 50% +6UTAH 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q18:41Svi Mykhailiuk makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 13 – 3 POR · UTAH 54% → 61% +6UTAH 54% → 61%+6 pts
- Q17:38Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 16 – 5 POR · UTAH 57% → 63% +6UTAH 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q13:00Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 28 – 14 POR · UTAH 65% → 71% +6UTAH 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q25:12John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 48 – 34 POR · UTAH 70% → 76% +7UTAH 70% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML UTAH +145 / POR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- POR: Elo 68.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -156
- UTAH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.5 – 113.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1360 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −4 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −13, Donovan Clingan −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +134 Elo | POR 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 107.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 115.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.3 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 105.428th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 5–521st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−4 Elo- Robert Williams III not with team−13 Elo
- Donovan Clingan left knee sprain−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–1 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.