Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints16
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds5
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints30
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–127
- Q40.0Jabari Walker lost ball turnover (Bones Hyland steals)105–127
- Q415.1Bones Hyland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)105–127
- Q422.1Clippers offensive team rebound105–124
- Q422.1Jabari Walker blocks Mo Bamba 's 1-foot two point shot105–124
- Q422.1Mo Bamba offensive rebound105–124
- Q425.1Bones Hyland misses 27-foot three point jumper105–124
- Q426.2Jordan Miller offensive rebound105–124
- Q428.1Jordan Miller misses driving layup105–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:40Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Norman Powell assists)POR 46 – 49 LAC · LAC 71% → 77% +6LAC 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q21:32Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)POR 55 – 59 LAC · POR 16% → 21% +6POR 16% → 21%+6 pts
- Q230.1Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 58 – 63 LAC · POR 14% → 20% +5POR 14% → 20%+5 pts
- Q39:00Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)POR 62 – 68 LAC · LAC 76% → 82% +7LAC 76% → 82%+7 pts
- Q35:55Norman Powell makes 28-foot three pointer (Kris Dunn assists)POR 70 – 75 LAC · LAC 72% → 80% +8LAC 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML POR +290 / LAC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 74.1%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -309
- POR +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 106.0 – 114.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −25 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −13, Donovan Clingan −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +182 Elo | LAC 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 109.323rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 107.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.5 | Margin | +2.310th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 109.821st of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 107.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 8–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+1 Elo- Robert Williams III not with team−13 Elo
- Donovan Clingan sprained left knee−11 Elo
Clippers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–9 | 15–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.