New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Yves MissiRebounds14
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Charles BasseyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q41.0Chris Paul defensive rebound116–121
- Q43.1Dejounte Murray misses 32-foot three point jumper116–121
- Q44.1CJ McCollum enters the game for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl116–121
- Q44.1Pelicans Full timeout116–121
- Q44.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2116–121
- Q44.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl enters the game for CJ McCollum116–120
- Q44.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2116–120
- Q44.1CJ McCollum personal take foul116–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:54Yves Missi makes dunkNO 111 – 114 SA · NO 12% → 22% +10NO 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q42:25Dejounte Murray makes 14-foot pullup jump shotNO 114 – 114 SA · NO 28% → 45% +17NO 28% → 45%+17 pts
- Q41:00CJ McCollum makes 1-foot two point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 116 – 114 SA · NO 47% → 74% +27NO 47% → 74%+27 pts
- Q436.2Victor Wembanyama makes 30-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)NO 116 – 117 SA · SA 19% → 70% +51SA 19% → 70%+51 pts
- Q420.0Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2NO 116 – 118 SA · SA 75% → 90% +15SA 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML NO +230 / SA -280
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- SA: Elo 74.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -243
- NO +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 108.5 – 115.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −54 | +33 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +184 Elo | SA 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.5 | Points scored | 111.019th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−12.0 | Margin | −2.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.4 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 112.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 8–618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–16 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 7–11 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–1 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.