Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints19
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Luguentz DortRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–111
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound96–111
- Q40.0Jalen Green misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot96–111
- Q45.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 296–111
- Q45.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 296–110
- Q45.0Jalen Green personal foul96–109
- Q413.1Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shot96–109
- Q423.1Jalen Green makes technical free throw94–109
- Q423.1Luguentz Dort technical foul93–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:46Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 51 – 45 OKC · HOU 48% → 58% +9HOU 48% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:23Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)HOU 51 – 48 OKC · OKC 42% → 52% +10OKC 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q37:47Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 51 – 53 OKC · OKC 58% → 67% +9OKC 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q36:13Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 56 – 56 OKC · HOU 30% → 39% +9HOU 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q33:14Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)HOU 64 – 68 OKC · OKC 63% → 73% +10OKC 63% → 73%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML HOU +190 / OKC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 61.8%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -201
- HOU +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 104.5 – 110.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1672 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +27 | +8 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +83 Elo | OKC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 115.810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 103.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +12.01st of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 113.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.1 | Defense rating | 102.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–9 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.