Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints20
- Stephen CurryAssists5
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds7
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–91
- Q40.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound90–91
- Q42.0Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Brandin Podziemski 's 25-foot three point jumper90–91
- Q43.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Kevon Looney90–91
- Q43.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Gary Payton II90–91
- Q43.1Fred VanVleet enters the game for Alperen Sengun90–91
- Q43.1Dillon Brooks enters the game for Jalen Green90–91
- Q43.1Warriors Full timeout90–91
- Q43.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 290–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:19Jabari Smith Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)GS 83 – 82 HOU · HOU 29% → 46% +18HOU 29% → 46%+18 pts
- Q44:27Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumperGS 86 – 82 HOU · GS 54% → 73% +19GS 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q427.0Alperen Sengun makes driving layupGS 90 – 89 HOU · HOU 6% → 30% +25HOU 6% → 30%+25 pts
- Q43.1Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2GS 90 – 90 HOU · HOU 6% → 50% +45HOU 6% → 50%+45 pts
- Q43.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2GS 90 – 91 HOU · HOU 50% → 94% +44HOU 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML GS +130 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -138
- GS +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 108.5 – 112.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +31 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | GS crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 113.613th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +7.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 110.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 103.42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.87th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 9–36th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–9 | 16–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–0 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.