Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints30
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–90
- Q416.1Pat Spencer out of bounds bad pass turnover107–90
- Q429.1Daishen Nix steps out of bounds turnover107–90
- Q438.1Buddy Hield makes 6-foot two point shot (Pat Spencer assists)107–90
- Q442.1Josh Minott bad pass (Pat Spencer steals)107–88
- Q455.2Pat Spencer makes two point shot107–88
- Q41:00Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound107–86
- Q41:03Luka Garza misses 26-foot three point jumper107–86
- Q41:20Kyle Anderson makes 1-foot dunk (Pat Spencer assists)107–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:54Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 63 – 57 GS · MIN 61% → 69% +9MIN 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q32.0Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 78 – 72 GS · GS 17% → 26% +9GS 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q410:38Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 80 – 77 GS · GS 25% → 36% +12GS 25% → 36%+12 pts
- Q410:01Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 83 – 77 GS · MIN 64% → 76% +12MIN 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q49:38Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 86 – 77 GS · MIN 76% → 86% +9MIN 76% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML MIN -120 / GS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- GS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 110.5 – 109.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | +14 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +27 Elo | GS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 115.311th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 109.47th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +5.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 106.34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 102.26th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–13 | 13–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.