Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints20
- Rudy GobertAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Clippers- Bones HylandPoints18
- James HardenAssists3
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–80
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–80
- Q41.0shot clock turnover108–80
- Q424.1Bones Hyland makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot108–80
- Q447.0Kai Jones defensive goaltending violation108–77
- Q447.0Luka Garza makes layup (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)108–77
- Q457.2Kai Jones makes free throw 2 of 2106–77
- Q457.2Kai Jones makes free throw 1 of 2106–76
- Q457.2Luka Garza shooting foul106–75
- Q41:12Daishen Nix makes free throw 2 of 2106–75
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:27Julius Randle makes 28-foot three point shot (Mike Conley assists)MIN 9 – 2 LAC · MIN 70% → 76% +5MIN 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q19:03Derrick Jones Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)MIN 9 – 5 LAC · LAC 24% → 30% +5LAC 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q17:41Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIN 9 – 10 LAC · LAC 34% → 40% +6LAC 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q16:34Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 12 – 10 LAC · MIN 60% → 66% +6MIN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q14:49Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 19 – 12 LAC · MIN 70% → 76% +6MIN 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -190 / LAC +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- MIN 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 42.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- LAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.5 – 104.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −17 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +55 Elo | LAC 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 110.022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 106.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +3.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 110.917th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 107.76th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 20th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 9–411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–13 | 16–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–1 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.