Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints27
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q417.0Warriors defensive team rebound106–114
- Q417.0Jonathan Kuminga blocks Julius Randle 's 6-foot two point shot106–114
- Q417.1Julius Randle offensive rebound106–114
- Q420.0Julius Randle misses driving layup106–114
- Q428.1Draymond Green makes 1-foot driving dunk106–114
- Q445.1Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound106–112
- Q447.2Anthony Edwards misses two point shot106–112
- Q457.0Timberwolves Full timeout106–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 90 – 90 GS · MIN 37% → 49% +12MIN 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q31.0Stephen Curry makes 38-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 90 – 93 GS · GS 51% → 63% +12GS 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q46:16Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 101 – 104 GS · MIN 19% → 33% +14MIN 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q44:47Anthony Edwards makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 106 – 105 GS · MIN 36% → 56% +19MIN 36% → 56%+19 pts
- Q42:55Jonathan Kuminga makes 2-foot dunk (Stephen Curry assists)MIN 106 – 107 GS · GS 42% → 59% +17GS 42% → 59%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML MIN +100 / GS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- GS: Elo 53.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.0 – 108.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +10 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +25 Elo | GS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 114.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 109.37th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 106.34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 102.26th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–13 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–0 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.