Houston Rockets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints31
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Clippers- Bones HylandPoints22
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–106
- Q417.1Ivica Zubac makes free throw 2 of 2117–106
- Q417.1Clippers offensive team rebound117–105
- Q417.1Ivica Zubac misses free throw 1 of 2117–105
- Q417.1Amen Thompson shooting foul117–105
- Q420.0Bones Hyland defensive rebound117–105
- Q422.1Amen Thompson misses two point shot117–105
- Q443.0Jalen Green defensive rebound117–105
- Q445.1Kevin Porter Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:01Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)HOU 35 – 30 LAC · HOU 62% → 68% +7HOU 62% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:50Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Holiday assists)HOU 44 – 40 LAC · HOU 59% → 66% +7HOU 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q24:40Bones Hyland makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)HOU 46 – 43 LAC · LAC 29% → 36% +7LAC 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q23:28Bones Hyland makes 26-foot three pointer (Ivica Zubac assists)HOU 49 – 46 LAC · LAC 29% → 36% +7LAC 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q21:35Jalen Green makes 27-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 57 – 50 LAC · HOU 67% → 74% +7HOU 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -150 / LAC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- HOU 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 45.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -138
- LAC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.0 – 105.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −33 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +32 Elo | LAC 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 108.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 107.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.9 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 109.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.2 | Defense rating | 107.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–8 | 16–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.