Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints19
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints39
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–118
- Q416.1Ajay Mitchell makes 2-foot layup (Kenrich Williams assists)104–118
- Q429.2Kenrich Williams defensive rebound104–116
- Q432.2Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 15-foot pullup jump shot104–116
- Q442.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound104–116
- Q447.1Dillon Jones misses 29-foot three point jumper104–116
- Q455.0Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein104–116
- Q455.0Dillon Jones enters the game for Cason Wallace104–116
- Q455.0Branden Carlson enters the game for Jalen Williams104–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:50Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)DAL 42 – 44 OKC · DAL 29% → 36% +7DAL 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q25:31Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)DAL 42 – 47 OKC · OKC 64% → 71% +7OKC 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q25:02Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 44 – 50 OKC · OKC 67% → 73% +7OKC 67% → 73%+7 pts
- Q23:22Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)DAL 47 – 53 OKC · OKC 66% → 74% +7OKC 66% → 74%+7 pts
- Q21:18Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 54 – 57 OKC · DAL 26% → 34% +7DAL 26% → 34%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML DAL +150 / OKC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- OKC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 47.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -159
- DAL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.0 – 117.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +76 | +4 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +21 Elo | DAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.710th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 103.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.7 | Margin | +11.91st of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 113.68th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 101.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.89th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 9–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–9 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 13–9 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–5 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss
- May 11OKC 101 @ DAL 105PlayoffsPicked OKC 51%Miss
- May 9DAL 119 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 7DAL 95 @ OKC 117PlayoffsPicked OKC 60%Hit
- Apr 14DAL 86 @ OKC 135Picked OKC 79%Hit