New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon Boston Jr.Points20
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds14
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–119
- Q46.1Myles Turner offensive rebound104–119
- Q410.1Tyrese Haliburton misses 17-foot pullup jump shot104–119
- Q433.1Herbert Jones makes 1-foot two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)104–119
- Q444.0Jarace Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)102–119
- Q451.1Jarace Walker defensive rebound102–116
- Q454.0Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot102–116
- Q41:04Tyrese Haliburton out of bounds bad pass turnover102–116
- Q41:22Dejounte Murray bad pass (Obi Toppin steals)102–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:11Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 18 – 18 IND · NO 25% → 31% +6NO 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q14:02Obi Toppin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NO 18 – 21 IND · IND 69% → 75% +6IND 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q12:38Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point shot (Obi Toppin assists)NO 23 – 26 IND · IND 69% → 74% +6IND 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q12:19Brandon Boston makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 26 – 26 IND · NO 26% → 32% +6NO 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q11:02Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)NO 26 – 29 IND · IND 68% → 74% +6IND 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- IND -7.5
- ML NO +225 / IND -275
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- IND: Elo 68.6%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -238
- NO +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | −15 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +136 Elo | IND 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 70.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 114.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 117.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.3 | Margin | −3.521st of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 111.513th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 114.925th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 7–414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–16 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–2 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.