Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints32
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints22
- Joel EmbiidAssists5
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–107
- Q416.1Reggie Jackson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)121–107
- Q422.0Ricky Council IV offensive rebound121–104
- Q424.0Ricky Council IV misses two point shot121–104
- Q446.0Quenton Jackson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot121–104
- Q456.1KJ Martin makes driving layup (Reggie Jackson assists)119–104
- Q41:00Enrique Freeman makes 1-foot dunk (Johnny Furphy assists)119–102
- Q41:03Johnny Furphy offensive rebound117–102
- Q41:05Bennedict Mathurin misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:06Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)IND 71 – 62 PHI · PHI 26% → 34% +8PHI 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q410:10Paul George makes 19-foot step back jumpshotIND 92 – 87 PHI · PHI 29% → 37% +8PHI 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q49:36Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 96 – 88 PHI · IND 64% → 76% +12IND 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q47:16KJ Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)IND 100 – 94 PHI · PHI 16% → 27% +11PHI 16% → 27%+11 pts
- Q44:12Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 108 – 98 PHI · IND 86% → 95% +9IND 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML IND +210 / PHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6.5
- PHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 74.4%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -221
- IND +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 110.5 – 117.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +102 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +185 Elo | PHI 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 105.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 110.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.2 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 105.927th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 110.912th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 3–827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–17 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.