Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- RJ BarrettRebounds6
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints31
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–139
- Q47.2shot clock turnover125–139
- Q431.2Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 2 of 2125–139
- Q431.2Raptors offensive team rebound124–139
- Q431.2Ja'Kobe Walter misses free throw 1 of 2124–139
- Q431.2Tyler Kolek personal foul124–139
- Q435.1Ulrich Chomche defensive rebound124–139
- Q438.1Miles McBride misses 22-foot three point jumper124–139
- Q445.2Knicks offensive team rebound124–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:23Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)TOR 2 – 3 NY · NY 84% → 87% +4NY 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q14:36Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)TOR 15 – 16 NY · NY 82% → 86% +4NY 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q11:42Chris Boucher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)TOR 23 – 23 NY · TOR 12% → 16% +4TOR 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q129.1Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 28 – 30 NY · NY 82% → 86% +4NY 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q29:41Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point shot (Miles McBride assists)TOR 32 – 35 NY · NY 82% → 87% +4NY 82% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML TOR +600 / NY -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10.5
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NY: Elo 84.4%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -636
- TOR +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 120.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | +16 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +293 Elo | NY 84.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 85.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 116.57th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 109.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +7.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 118.52nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 8–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–9 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 20–8 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–5 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.