New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints26
- Dejounte MurrayAssists8
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–93
- Q411.1CJ McCollum makes driving layup104–93
- Q416.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2104–91
- Q416.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2103–91
- Q416.1Brandon Boston enters the game for Herbert Jones102–91
- Q416.1Herbert Jones personal foul102–91
- Q421.1Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2102–91
- Q421.1Pelicans offensive team rebound102–90
- Q421.1Herbert Jones misses free throw 1 of 2102–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:27Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 65 – 69 NO · NY 40% → 50% +11NY 40% → 50%+11 pts
- Q33:44Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)NY 68 – 69 NO · NY 50% → 60% +11NY 50% → 60%+11 pts
- Q33:23Dejounte Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NY 68 – 72 NO · NO 40% → 51% +11NO 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q32:38Karl-Anthony Towns makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 71 – 72 NO · NY 49% → 60% +11NY 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q32:08Jalen Brunson makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotNY 74 – 72 NO · NY 60% → 70% +11NY 60% → 70%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NY -325 / NO +260
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- NY: Elo 81.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -275
- NO +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.0 – 107.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −74 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +256 Elo | NY 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 105.430th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 117.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.0 | Margin | −11.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 104.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 4–926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−74 Elo- Jose Alvarado left hamstring−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–14 | 10–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–2 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.