New York Knicks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds22
Magic- Moritz WagnerPoints32
- Jalen SuggsAssists8
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–91
- Q47.1shot clock turnover100–91
- Q428.1Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound100–91
- Q430.1Moritz Wagner misses free throw 2 of 2100–91
- Q430.1Moritz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2100–91
- Q430.1(00:30.7) [Knicks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Knicks] retain their timeout100–90
- Q430.1Knicks Coach's Challenge100–90
- Q430.1Jalen Brunson shooting foul100–90
- Q433.1Moritz Wagner defensive rebound100–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:18Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 33 – 29 ORL · NY 62% → 69% +7NY 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q24:33Tristan da Silva makes 22-foot three point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)NY 38 – 35 ORL · ORL 26% → 34% +7ORL 26% → 34%+7 pts
- Q34:04Moritz Wagner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)NY 66 – 60 ORL · ORL 16% → 24% +8ORL 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q410:35Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)NY 77 – 70 ORL · ORL 11% → 18% +7ORL 11% → 18%+7 pts
- Q49:48Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 80 – 70 ORL · NY 83% → 90% +7NY 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML NY -175 / ORL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- NY: Elo 53.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -159
- ORL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 109.0 – 104.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −36 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +21 Elo | NY 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 107.725th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 103.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 108.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 104.73rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 99.023rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 10–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–14 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 13–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–3 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.