Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints32
- Wendell Carter Jr.Assists5
- Goga BitadzeRebounds14
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–114
- Q41.0Magic offensive team rebound109–114
- Q41.0Jett Howard misses 59-foot three point pullup jump shot109–114
- Q42.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2109–114
- Q42.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2109–113
- Q42.0Jett Howard personal take foul109–112
- Q43.1Tristan da Silva enters the game for Moritz Wagner109–112
- Q43.1Damian Lillard enters the game for Bobby Portis109–112
- Q43.1Bucks defensive team rebound109–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:07Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three pointerORL 100 – 100 MIL · ORL 22% → 43% +22ORL 22% → 43%+22 pts
- Q42:12Jalen Suggs makes two point shot (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 102 – 101 MIL · ORL 35% → 54% +19ORL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q41:45Jalen Suggs makes 18-foot pullup jump shotORL 104 – 103 MIL · ORL 34% → 56% +21ORL 34% → 56%+21 pts
- Q452.0Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 106 – 106 MIL · MIL 14% → 54% +39MIL 14% → 54%+39 pts
- Q432.1Damian Lillard makes driving dunkORL 107 – 108 MIL · MIL 34% → 71% +38MIL 34% → 71%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML ORL +280 / MIL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.5%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -297
- ORL +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.5 – 112.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +39 | ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +74 Elo | MIL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 113.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.3 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Defense rating | 112.215th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 14th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 8–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−43 Elo- Jonathan Isaac right hamstring strain−8 Elo
Bucks
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–11 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–5 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.