Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Royce O'NealeRebounds7
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints26
- Goga BitadzeAssists4
- Goga BitadzeRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q40.0Jalen Suggs defensive rebound110–115
- Q43.0Monte Morris misses shot110–115
- Q46.1Monte Morris enters the game for Mason Plumlee110–115
- Q46.1Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Josh Okogie110–115
- Q46.1Suns Full timeout110–115
- Q46.1Josh Okogie defensive rebound110–115
- Q46.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope misses free throw 2 of 2110–115
- Q46.1Magic offensive team rebound110–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:48Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 97 – 93 ORL · PHX 53% → 68% +15PHX 53% → 68%+15 pts
- Q46:51Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 97 – 98 ORL · ORL 41% → 57% +16ORL 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q45:04Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 100 – 103 ORL · ORL 51% → 70% +18ORL 51% → 70%+18 pts
- Q42:34Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 106 – 107 ORL · PHX 18% → 40% +22PHX 18% → 40%+22 pts
- Q42:20Jalen Suggs makes driving layupPHX 106 – 109 ORL · ORL 60% → 77% +17ORL 60% → 77%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML PHX +110 / ORL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 66.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -119
- PHX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.0 – 107.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | −35 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +115 Elo | ORL 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 107.326th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 103.01st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +4.39th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 108.624th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–14 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 12–5 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 1–2 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.