Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Knicks- Josh HartPoints21
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–100
- Q421.1Jalen Brunson bad pass (Trae Young steals)108–100
- Q423.1Knicks Full timeout108–100
- Q423.1Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 2108–100
- Q423.1Hawks offensive team rebound107–100
- Q423.1Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2107–100
- Q423.1Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns107–100
- Q423.1Karl-Anthony Towns shooting foul107–100
- Q423.1Clint Capela offensive rebound107–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:43Trae Young makes 30-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 68 – 66 NY · ATL 31% → 41% +10ATL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q34:42De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 73 – 66 NY · ATL 48% → 59% +10ATL 48% → 59%+10 pts
- Q48:53Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)ATL 87 – 79 NY · NY 15% → 25% +10NY 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q47:47Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)ATL 89 – 82 NY · NY 15% → 26% +11NY 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q45:46Josh Hart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)ATL 93 – 87 NY · NY 13% → 25% +12NY 13% → 25%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML ATL +280 / NY -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NY: Elo 68.8%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -297
- ATL +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.5 – 123.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +31 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +137 Elo | NY 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 111.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +6.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 112.819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.8 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–8 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.