Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints39
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints31
- Trae YoungAssists20
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–134
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–134
- OT0.0Trae Young defensive rebound132–134
- OT1.2LeBron James misses 31-foot three point jumper132–134
- OT8.0Trae Young makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)132–134
- OT19.1Cam Reddish enters the game for D'Angelo Russell132–131
- OT19.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Dyson Daniels132–131
- OT19.1Hawks Full timeout132–131
- OT19.1Anthony Davis lost ball turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)132–131
- OT19.1Anthony Davis vs. Dyson Daniels132–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q427.0De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)LAL 117 – 119 ATL · ATL 30% → 86% +56ATL 30% → 86%+56 pts
- Q412.2LeBron James makes layupLAL 119 – 119 ATL · LAL 5% → 49% +44LAL 5% → 49%+44 pts
- OT2:13LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumperLAL 127 – 125 ATL · LAL 39% → 67% +28LAL 39% → 67%+28 pts
- OT1:44Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 130 – 127 ATL · LAL 48% → 78% +30LAL 48% → 78%+30 pts
- OT8.0Trae Young makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)LAL 132 – 134 ATL · ATL 16% → 98% +81ATL 16% → 98%+81 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML LAL +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- LAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.5 – 119.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +26 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +122 Elo | ATL 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 118.427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.3 | Margin | −1.818th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 110.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.916th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.8 | Pace | 105.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 6–519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–14 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.