Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints48
- Russell WestbrookAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–111
- Q44.1shot clock turnover141–111
- Q429.1Kobe Bufkin makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot141–111
- Q439.0Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound141–109
- Q441.2Zeke Nnaji misses free throw 1 of 1141–109
- Q441.2Kobe Bufkin shooting foul141–109
- Q441.2Zeke Nnaji makes two point shot (Jalen Pickett assists)141–109
- Q445.1Vit Krejci bad pass (Jalen Pickett steals)139–109
- Q454.1Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound139–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:49Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 3 – 0 ATL · DEN 49% → 55% +6DEN 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q16:30Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 18 – 10 ATL · DEN 60% → 66% +6DEN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q12:37Julian Strawther makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 31 – 19 ATL · DEN 69% → 75% +6DEN 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:29Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 43 – 25 ATL · DEN 82% → 86% +5DEN 82% → 86%+5 pts
- Q27:02De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)DEN 47 – 36 ATL · ATL 19% → 24% +6ATL 19% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -0.5
- ML DEN -105 / ATL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.0 – 121.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −4 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −25, Bogdan Bogdanovic −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 117.38th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 119.028th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 110.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 112.015th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.5 | Pace | 105.73rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−4 Elo- Jalen Johnson right shoulder soreness−25 Elo
- Bogdan Bogdanovic left quad contusion−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–14 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.