New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints32
- Miles McBrideAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds20
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints24
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Donte DiVincenzoRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–107
- Q418.1Luka Garza makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)133–107
- Q428.1Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 2 of 2133–104
- Q428.1Knicks offensive team rebound132–104
- Q428.1Ariel Hukporti misses free throw 1 of 2132–104
- Q428.1Rob Dillingham shooting foul132–104
- Q428.1Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound132–104
- Q430.1Matt Ryan misses 23-foot three point jumper132–104
- Q432.0Jericho Sims offensive rebound132–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:44Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)NY 14 – 15 MIN · MIN 54% → 60% +6MIN 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:12Julius Randle makes 25-foot three pointerNY 16 – 18 MIN · MIN 56% → 62% +6MIN 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q118.1Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 30 – 33 MIN · NY 29% → 36% +6NY 29% → 36%+6 pts
- Q211:16Cameron Payne makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotNY 38 – 33 MIN · NY 48% → 55% +7NY 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:44Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)NY 41 – 35 MIN · NY 50% → 57% +7NY 50% → 57%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML NY +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- NY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 105.0 – 108.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −9 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 105.63rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 109.720th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 105.44th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–14 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.