Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints23
- Austin ReavesAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–97
- Q418.0Cam Reddish bad pass (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)87–97
- Q431.0Christian Koloko enters the game for Austin Reaves87–97
- Q431.0Dalton Knecht enters the game for Anthony Davis87–97
- Q431.0Jaden McDaniels traveling87–97
- Q455.0Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 287–97
- Q455.0Cam Reddish enters the game for D'Angelo Russell86–97
- Q455.0Max Christie makes free throw 1 of 286–97
- Q455.0Julius Randle shooting foul85–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:42Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 47 – 50 MIN · LAL 17% → 24% +6LAL 17% → 24%+6 pts
- Q39:19Gabe Vincent makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 50 – 54 MIN · LAL 15% → 22% +6LAL 15% → 22%+6 pts
- Q49:18Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Reddish assists)LAL 75 – 80 MIN · LAL 10% → 18% +8LAL 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q45:52Anthony Davis makes two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 77 – 83 MIN · LAL 8% → 13% +5LAL 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q42:33Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 82 – 87 MIN · LAL 2% → 10% +7LAL 2% → 10%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML LAL +300 / MIN -380
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 78.8%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -317
- LAL +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 102.5 – 111.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −92 | −11 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +228 Elo | MIN 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 110.520th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 107.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.6 | Margin | +3.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 110.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 107.06th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.