Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints19
- Anfernee SimonsAssists4
- Deandre AytonRebounds19
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- D'Angelo RussellAssists14
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–107
- Q420.1Rayan Rupert makes driving layup (Dalano Banton assists)98–107
- Q431.1Maxwell Lewis out of bounds lost ball turnover96–107
- Q433.2Christian Koloko defensive rebound96–107
- Q435.1Bryce McGowens misses 26-foot three point jumper96–107
- Q436.1Kris Murray offensive rebound96–107
- Q440.1Bronny James blocks Kris Murray 's 4-foot two point shot96–107
- Q445.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound96–107
- Q447.0Christian Koloko misses 7-foot jump bank shot96–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:53Quincy Olivari makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dalton Knecht assists)POR 28 – 25 LAL · LAL 55% → 62% +7LAL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q29:52Shaedon Sharpe makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 31 – 27 LAL · POR 34% → 41% +7POR 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q27:13Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Reddish assists)POR 35 – 36 LAL · LAL 63% → 70% +7LAL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q30.0Scoot Henderson makes 47-foot jump bank shotPOR 74 – 77 LAL · POR 18% → 27% +9POR 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q49:52D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 78 – 86 LAL · LAL 80% → 88% +8LAL 80% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML POR +240 / LAL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.7%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -253
- POR +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.0 – 115.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1369 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −107 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −11, Duop Reath −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +68 Elo | LAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 112.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 116.522nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.6 | Margin | −4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 115.926th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.019th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 7–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−31 Elo- Donovan Clingan left knee sprain−11 Elo
- Duop Reath sore back−1 Elo
Lakers
−107 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–11 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–3 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.