Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds11
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints20
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Jeremy SochanRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–92
- Q422.1Blake Wesley makes driving layup106–92
- Q428.1Luka Garza turnover106–90
- Q428.1Luka Garza offensive foul106–90
- Q438.1Sidy Cissoko makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)106–90
- Q449.1Charles Bassey defensive rebound106–87
- Q451.1Rob Dillingham misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot106–87
- Q41:00Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 28-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)106–87
- Q41:10Luka Garza makes 12-foot two point shot (Rob Dillingham assists)106–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:08Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)MIN 61 – 55 SA · SA 17% → 24% +7SA 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q33:01Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 69 – 63 SA · MIN 68% → 77% +9MIN 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q31:49Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)MIN 72 – 66 SA · SA 15% → 23% +8SA 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q346.0Devin Vassell makes 15-foot pullup jump shotMIN 74 – 70 SA · SA 22% → 29% +6SA 22% → 29%+6 pts
- Q332.0Jaden McDaniels makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Naz Reid assists)MIN 76 – 70 SA · MIN 72% → 78% +6MIN 72% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -185 / SA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- SA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.5 – 105.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +37 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +71 Elo | MIN 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Points scored | 111.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 113.216th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −1.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 111.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.1 | Defense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 9–617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–14 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.